The Way It Was Then

8:00 AM
Celebrity sent to hospital

10:00 AM
Celebrity pronounced dead

6:00 PM
Local TV announces death

Next Morning
Story printed on page 9 of the local newspaper

The Way It Is Now

8:00 AM
Celebrity sent to hospital

9:30 AM
Celebrity news site announces celebrity death

9:31 AM
Traffic on Twitter begins to explode with suspicions of drug related cardiac arrest

10:00 AM
Celebrity pronounced dead

10:30 AM
Rumors of other celebrity deaths spread on Twitter and other sites

10:45 AM
Celebrity tributes to dead celebrity begin

11:35 AM
Cable news networks announce death on network

12:00 PM
Cable news networks announce death on their web sites

I’ve never held, in my hands, a copy of the Rocky Mountain News.  I’m a tree-hugger and happy to watch the disappearance of more printed materials.  BUT…I love media, and more importantly, I love people.  Today we mourn the loss of an online publisher as well, not just a printed paper.  And more importantly, we empathize with even more people who have lost their jobs.

If you haven’t had a chance to watch the video and slideshow on the website, http://rockymountainnews.com, you must.  It will tug at your heart strings.  The video is hosted by a couple now unemployed, with young children.  The slideshow includes photos of employees who brought their kids to work, getting the bad news with their children on their lap.  It really hurts.

While printed newspapers are definitely on their way out, digital news has hit an extreme lack of innovation, with many of these news sites turning into complete commodities.  They all look the same.  Header, standard banner ads, list of news, maybe some video, disappointing search, and maybe some links out to other sites.  The content is largely the same as the content available on competing sites.  The holy grail of local continues to be elusive.  I hope the news industry gets innovating, because we need to save real journalism.  UGC is taking off, but it’s no replacement for news bureaus with real journalists.

Rocky Mountain News and rockymountainnews.com, rest in peace.

Will newspapers still exist in 2015?  Here are my predictions:

1. Printed newspapers will be virtually gone.
2. About 35% of newspapers will still be available, but primarily as content providers, rather than print  distributors.
3. The majority of news will be consumed on a handful of social news portals, platforms similar to Facebook but specializing in news, allowing layout flexibility and hyper-localization.  It will not be Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft.
4. These portals will monetize with a combination of advertising and subscriptions.
5. Subscriptions will come in different forms: All content, all content from certain content providers (formerly known as newspapers), and subscriptions limited by usage quotas (# of articles, etc).

Your thoughts?  Am I on track?  Is my timing about right?  Am I way off base?  Please post your predictions, and feel free to post links to your posts on the topic.