News in 2015
February 25, 2009 · Posted in Future of News, Social Media
Will newspapers still exist in 2015? Here are my predictions:
- Printed newspapers will be virtually gone.
- About 35% of newspapers will still be available, but primarily as content providers, rather than print distributors.
- The majority of news will be consumed on a handful of social news portals, platforms similar to Facebook but specializing in news, allowing layout flexibility and hyper-localization. It will not be Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft.
- These portals will monetize with a combination of advertising and subscriptions.
- Subscriptions will come in different forms: All content, all content from certain content providers (formerly known as newspapers), and subscriptions limited by usage quotas (# of articles, etc).
Your thoughts? Am I on track? Is my timing about right? Am I way off base? Please post your predictions, and feel free to post links to your posts on the topic.
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9 Responses to “News in 2015”
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Needless to say those platforms will be available on multiple screens. Kindle-type devices, mobile, web, tv…
In my next post, I’ll explain why printed news can’t compete with news in other mediums.
5 years to eliminate print newspapers? That seems aggressive.
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=qegOAAAAIBAJ&sjid=SYQDAAAAIBAJ&pg=7063,3231768
I’d agree that 5 years is pretty aggressive for the elimination of all print. I’d go for 2030 – there are still a lot of people who like the feel and touch of paper. It won’t go away until our children or our children’s children (who won’t know what a paper is) come of age. They’ll all be using the Amazon Kindle v10
As papers struggle to stay alive (yes, even major papers like SF Chronicle), we can already see them starting to reduce how many editions are printed in a week, and even going all-digital. With virtually every newspaper in trouble, I think it’s safe to say that circulation will be drastically reduced. Soon.
I really thought my other predictions were more bold
As we speak, CBS 4 Denver reports that the Rocky Mountain News will close:
http://cbs4denver.com/local/scripps.rocky.denver.2.944906.html
Another one bites the dust.
I wonder if through the technology of self publishing if news papers will offer a more ala-carte model–so I want sports (baseball and hockey), local news, politics and business–and that is all I will get. Very customized home delivery–as opposed to dozens of pages I ignore.
I wouldn’t wonder, I’m certain they will (online anyway).
I have to most respectfully disagree.
Journalists and newspapers will part ways. Journalism will move away from newspaper enterprises and thrive. Newspapers will focus on being the best physical media to amuse, entertain and educate.
And to host the public discourse for geographically defined communities.
1. Printed newspapers will be virtually gone.
Space based physical newspapers will thrive. They will evolve from the successful shoppers and resilient local papers today, into a new kind of product. Their information will be delivered on the net for niche audiences, in epaper for some, and on Paper for the mass market. They will stop running after the “breaking noise” and focus on nurturing real conversation about real issues – local economic development, local education, health and security. And sell lots and lots of ads to local enterprise, by streamlining their ad purchase process.
2. About 35% of newspapers will still be available, but primarily as content providers, rather than print distributors.
Nope. Most newspapers will make explicit the implict reality that they don’t produce much content. They will put their resouces on creating teams of three to focus on local beats. They will host conversations on the web and print excerpts of those conversation on the web, on epaper and mostly on real paper.
3. The majority of news will be consumed on a handful of social news portals, platforms similar to Facebook but specializing in news, allowing layout flexibility and hyper-localization. It will not be Google, Yahoo, or Microsoft.
News is consumed. Narratives are read. Readers are a the next niche market that is getting ready to explode. The Kindle 2.0 is only the first step in organizing the disorganized market of readers.
4. These portals will monetize with a combination of advertising and subscriptions.
The portals will be a part of the full information package that users will pay for. Big advertising is a dead end. Local advertising is a growing market.
5. Subscriptions will come in different forms: All content, all content from certain content providers (formerly known as newspapers), and subscriptions limited by usage quotas (# of articles, etc).
I still don’t believe that people will pay for “general news.” They will pay for various reasons. Mostly because it is actionable intelligence that their competition might get before them. Financial news fits in this bin. But few other things do.
Sorry for the long post. But you did ask for “what do you think”